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What are they saying about winter 2013/14?

Chicago
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What are they saying about winter 2013/14?

Hi! I was wondering if there's a farmer's almanac or similar source that predicts snowfall for each upcoming winter. ...And whether or not they're worth paying any attention to. I know there's no crystal ball, but in Chicago they generally have an idea of whether it's going to be a snowy year or not.

The reason I'm asking is that I'm hoping to hike to Glen Aulin and beyond next year, but it's a guessing game as to when to get permits. It's a safer bet to go in July, but we'd like to avoid the midsummer crowds and would prefer to go earlier in the season--if the weather would permit it.

I guess worst case scenario we can just roll the dice and get the permits for mid/late June, or I could suppress my overly anal planning tendencies and try for first-come-first served permits. (*Shudder.*) But I figured I'd ask anyway. Thanks!

Washington State
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for Yosemite National Park
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1. Re: What are they saying about winter 2013/14?

Personally I wouldn't aim for mid-June. But I'm really not fond of mosquitoes so I hike when there are more people and fewer mozzies like early August.

No idea about this winter.

Mariposa, California
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for Yosemite National Park
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2. Re: What are they saying about winter 2013/14?

The long range national weather service forecast discussion says California will likely have a relatively dry winter until January, at which point the models become more unsettled. The last I read there wasn't a particular ocean temp difference either, which supposedly can mean an average precipitation year. But all of that is Whyyyyyyy out there forecast wise.

Mid June can be risky particularly if you want to go beyond glen aulin.

Mosquitoes are always an excellent thing to consider. Even this year with a really dry weather, had a few friends who were fairly miserable in June because of the swarms.

Henderson, Nevada
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3. Re: What are they saying about winter 2013/14?

This year seems to be a toss up... generally we look to whether this is an El Nino (warm off shore) or La Nina (cool off shore) year.. then guess what the weather might be... El Nino is generally dryer but storms when they come are big... La Nina is generally wetter with heavier show accumulation (and later season start) 50 years ago we generally didn't recognize El Nino... (they did back then in South America, (my wife and her family lived in Peru in the early 1960's knew and talk about them) Here in California, 30 years ago, we expected a El Nino every 7 years (and didn't recognize La Nina)... Now we look for patterns, but they have not been that reliable recently.

This year is neither, so we really don't have a good feel... Winter (with the change of leaves) seemed to come earlier in the Bay area and (leaves changing in August... In the Sierra the aspen were pretty much done by the second week of Oct..., a full week or two before normal, but we are dry... about 2" below dry normal... with best forecasts saying we are a week or 10 days away from the rain window opening...

If we don't get decent rain and snow California and the west will be in a full fledged drought... My dumb guess is a late winter, and a late spring... But I still lick my finger and hold it up to tell what way the wind is blowing... I am guessing that Tioga will close mid December and not reopen until the third week of June...

Not an expert... Randy

Chicago
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4. Re: What are they saying about winter 2013/14?

Randy, you sure do sound like an expert! Could have fooled me. :) In fact, I've been to your website before!

Thanks for the information. The point about mosquitos is something I hadn't considered but should. My poor husband is a magnet and would never forgive me. That might make the snowmelt issue a moot point.

Also, thanks for not making fun of me for asking you to predict the weather. Ha!

Henderson, Nevada
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5. Re: What are they saying about winter 2013/14?

We are now hoping for rain in SF and snow in the Sierras as early as mid November... If we get a couple of good storms Tioga could closed by Thanksgiving...

Weather is always a guess..

My family is having a family reunion in the valley for Thanksgiving (and have every other year since 1968) and are now hoping for a bit of snow...

Randy

Visalia, California
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6. Re: What are they saying about winter 2013/14?

Well I was born and raised in Visalia CA which is about 2 hoiurs away from Yosemite. Fresno is only 45 minutes north... That said if we get rain then Yosemite and the Serrias are getting snow...

Over my life I have noticed that we typically have one dry year and the next will be wet. How ever some of the time it will be 2 dry winterea and the next will be extremely wet.

That said we are in the middle of one of the worst droughts in recent memory. I'm not even sure when the last time it actually rained (enough to wet to the ground). But it has easily been 7+ months.

We typically get our first rain on or around Halloween, we did have a storm roll through but it did not rain. Though I do believe Yosemite got some snow.

This winter should be "wet" how wet? Who knows? If you want a reliable source for snow pack follow the El Ninio and La Ninia events. They are spot on one is very wet the other is very dry. This year is neither and they simply don't know what will happen.

It should keyword should start snowing/raining soon.. Based on how dry last year was it should be at the very least am average or near average winter..

7. Re: What are they saying about winter 2013/14?

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