If you are staying in the Poipu area, you shouldn't have much more rain than you would in Maui . . .but if I were coming in February, I would already have things booked - your choices may be very limited. :)
Take a look at this temperature / rainfall guide for all the islands and compare. You'll see the Poipu averages are for temp and rainfall are pretty much the same as Kaanapali area of Maui. A few tenths of an inch more for rainfall but that's negligible in reality. Both have average daily temps slightly less than 80.
Here's the link:
Now that's only Poipu. The rainfall amounts increase as you wind counterclockwise around the island. The west side has the least rainfall. So Poipu is comparable to some parts of Maui. The difference being Maui will have more locations that are even drier than either Poipu or Kaanapali.Edited: 10:29 pm, January 13, 2013
Odds slightly favor Maui for weather in winter. But there are no guarantees. Sometimes they get hammered and we are clear. Sometimes the reverse or both have great weather or both getting slammed by a big storm. It's winter which is a bit of a crapshoot on weather out here (see the Top Questions threads on weather for more detailed discussions).
We normally go in Feb. We have had good weather and very rainy weather - you just never know until you get there. We have been there when it has rained so hard that dams broke, we have been there when we have not seen a drop of rain except maybe during the night. We have gone in May and had beautiful perfect weather but the whales are not there which we love to just sit and watch.
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