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last forecast on sakura

Nara, Japan
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last forecast on sakura

Here's an update on the forecast of sakura today:

http://www.tenki.jp/skr/index.html (Japanese language)

(by Japan Meteorological Association)

Names of the cities and the dates predicted:

1)Hokuriku Area

Niigata 4 / 2, Kanazawa 3 / 28, Fukui 3 / 27, Toyama 3 / 29,

Wajima 4 / 3

2)Kanto Area

Tokyo 3 / 20, Utsunomiya, Maebashi 3 / 24, Kumagai 3 / 21, Yokohama 3 / 20, Choshi 3 / 23, Hachijojima 4 / 2

3)Koshin Area

Matsumoto 4 / 4, Nagano 4 / 6, Kofu 3 / 21

3)Tokai Area

Shizuoka 3 / 22, Nagoya 3 / 20, Gifu 3 / 21, Owase, Tsu 3 / 25

Note: Shizuoka's was to have started blooming on 3 / 13 on the previous forecast.

4)Kansai Area

Kobe 3 / 23, Osaka 3 / 24, Kyoto 3 / 25, Nara 3 / 25, Hikone 3 / 28, Wakayama 3 / 23, Wakayama 3 / 23, Shionomisaki 3 / 25

5)Chugoku Area

Hiroshima 3 / 23, Okayama 3 / 25, Matsue 3 / 26, Tottori 3 / 27, Shimonoseki 3 / 24

6)Shikoku Area

Takamatsu 3 / 25, Matsuyama 3 / 22, Tokushima 3 / 25, Kochi 3 / 20

7)Kyushu Area

Fukuoka 3 / 20, Oita, Nagasaki, Saga 3 / 21 Kumamoto 3 / 20, Kagoshima 3 / 26, Miyazaki 3 / 24

As for Hokkaido, the forecast will go public later this month.

As of now, sakuras in Tokyo, Yokohama, Nagoya, Kochi, Kumamoto and Fukuoka are the first to bloom. If the above is right, the full bloom will be generally 5 to 7, or 4 to 6, days after each forecast date. Good luck, guys.

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1. Re: last forecast on sakura

Thanks Shot! I always look forward to your posts. My husband and I are counting down the days we arrive in Japan (next week Saturday) -- just in time for the sakura!

Nara, Japan
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2. Re: last forecast on sakura

Thanks for your kind remark, smmiyah. Parts of Tokyo will have turned pink by the time you come. Hope you'll have a blast.

Nara, Japan
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3. Re: last forecast on sakura

Since hanami and baseball are slightly more important than breathing for the Japanese as a whole, today's morning newspapers delt with why the agency made a wrong forecast.

Prelude to the second forecast by Meteorological Agency

(press conference scene):

…oni.co.jp/newsk/…20070314010004511-p.html (from Sanyo Shimbun)

Look at the online news article by Daily Yomiuri:

yomiuri.co.jp/dy/…20070315TDY02009.htm

The agency held a press conference on March the 14th and apologized for the wrong forecast on Tokyo, Shizuoka, Takamatsu and Matsuyama having been made public a week before. Observation department director, Keiichi Kashiwagi, announced the agency found out the error when feeding the data to its super computer on March the 13th for the second forecast.

Based on the computation result this time, he said, Shizuoka came even earlier than had been predicted. Yes, it ought to have been theoretically in the state of blooming by then. (Note: according to the first forecast, the cherry blossom in Shizuoka was to have bloomed on the 13th)

Probing into the computation process, they found out the data on temperature for last December had gone wrong when processed into the software involved. They made amendment on the data and thus came on the 14th the latest forecast. Kashiwagi went on to say it was a matter of great regret that the agency should have caused trouble to those whose preparation for events like hanami were already under way. But the overall tendency for sakura to bloom earlier this year than an average remains the same, it seems.

One may like to sympathize with the agency; the Japanese as a whole never begin to think that they should give them due credit for what they do even when the forecast is right on the mark. With the development of satellite technique, people take for granted that the agency has got to be always on the right track. Besides, there is so much depending on the forecast that, when it turns out false, a lot of Japanese start to give vent to the anger by swearing at the poor forecast made by them.

Come to think of it; do we really need to have them forecast the exact date of sakura? This is not a matter of life and death, you know. No quakes, tsunami, typhoons, or blizzard involved in there. Is there any government organization other than Japan Meteorological Agency that is held accountable in a press conference for the wrong forecast of the blooming date on some flower, in which case it might have been possibly be televised nationwide for a bigger mistake?

Personally, I really hope the second forecast will make a best possible prediction and that everyone will be happy with it.

Nara, Japan
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4. Re: last forecast on sakura

Oops!

Sorry for this:

What I meant was

"Since hanami and baseball are just as much as, or slightly LESS, important than breathing for the Japanese as a whole,"

<Since hanami and baseball are slightly more important than breathing for the Japanese as a whole,>

Toronto
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5. Re: last forecast on sakura

BBC World just reported that the sakura predictions have been quite wrong this year and an official from the meteorological agency (or something like that) appologized publicly for it.

Nara, Japan
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6. Re: last forecast on sakura

Thanks, bibimbob, I didn't know BBC World reported on the incident. From what I gather, though, the forecast was not entirely false. To be precise, sakura in 1)Tokyo, 2)Shizuoka, 3)Takamatsu and 4)Matsuyama had been expected by the agency to come out MUCH earlier.

7. Re: last forecast on sakura

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