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Thursday 4:30 PM CDT -- Hurricane Emily Update

In cooperation with: Visit Mexico
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Illinois
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Thursday 4:30 PM CDT -- Hurricane Emily Update

No overall change in the forecast thinking since early this afternoon. As we know, Emily is now a major Category 3 Hurricane, with winds of 115 MPH. With warm waters in the Caribbean Sea, a slow strengthening is likely in the next day or so. Right now, most computer models are suggesting a landfall near Cozumel as a Category 3 or 4 Hurricane. The other adjustment has been the timing of the storm. Emily is moving considerably faster, so the estimated time of landfall has been moved up to Sunday evening/overnight.

So the news is not very good overall, I'm sorry to say. In fact, it appears as though the news is getting a little worse. Still too early to cancel if you're leaving Saturday-Monday. If you're leaving tomorrow, looks like you've got a choice to make.

Los Angeles
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1. Re: Thursday 4:30 PM CDT -- Hurricane Emily Update

weatherdood, you don't know how much of an asset you are to all of us. I've been glued to my screen for the past couple hours waiting for your updates...thanks!! My family is expected to leave on Saturday the 23rd, do you think paradise will be ruined if a CAT 3 or 4 storms by a week prior. I don't want to change plans but I might have to.

Charlottesville, Va
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2. Re: Thursday 4:30 PM CDT -- Hurricane Emily Update

We are headed to the Paradisio Linda...will Emily impact this area if all goes as recently indicated???

Thanks for your updates!

Illinois
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3. Re: Thursday 4:30 PM CDT -- Hurricane Emily Update

idealist -- Really no way to tell for sure...this is one of those things where a few miles difference here or there could make all the difference. I'm sure after the storm has passed we will get some reports from people who are down there to tell us what it's like.

Illinois
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4. Re: Thursday 4:30 PM CDT -- Hurricane Emily Update

Mooselover -- I am not familiar with the location of the Paradisio Linda. Can you give me an idea?

Charlottesville, Va
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5. Re: Thursday 4:30 PM CDT -- Hurricane Emily Update

Weatherdood...it is in Puerto Morales, near Playa de Carmen. Thanks for your response.

Illinois
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6. Re: Thursday 4:30 PM CDT -- Hurricane Emily Update

Looks like the news for Cozumel or Playa del Carmen is worse. That could be even harder hit than Cancun, if current projections play out. Sorry for the bad news, but remember, things can still change very quickly, so stay tuned.

Los Angeles
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7. Re: Thursday 4:30 PM CDT -- Hurricane Emily Update

do any locals (maybe Lisa?) have any idea how long it takes to recover from damage? I know it's hard to predict but a rough estimate would be great! I'd hate to not see any beaches or to avoid tours because everything is ruined. We hate you, Emily!

Charlottesville, Va
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8. Re: Thursday 4:30 PM CDT -- Hurricane Emily Update

Not good news, but realistic!! Thanks!!!

McDonough, GA
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9. Re: Thursday 4:30 PM CDT -- Hurricane Emily Update

I am new to this forum. I usually read the Puerto Morelos forum because I'm travelling to SERC in early September. "Weatherdood" I notice everyone is looking to you for advice. Are you an expert in this field? It appears you have a lot of knowledge on this subject. Just wondering where you expertise is coming from. Thanks for all of the helpful suggestions you are supplying us with. I will let the PM forum now to come to this forum for help. Thank you!

texas
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10. Re: Thursday 4:30 PM CDT -- Hurricane Emily Update

Weatherdood, thanks for the info. We leave Saturday morning at 7:30 for....you guessed it, Cozumel, and have been tracking Emily hoping for some change. What do you think the airlines will do in this case? Thanks!!!!!