Howdy folks, 2:00AM Central Time, and Weatherdood's chiming in with some GREAT news! Just got done examining some of the latest computer model data, and the news is most encouraging.
From surveying 5 different computer models, NONE of the 5 suggest a direct hit from Emily! There are three plausible scenarios suggested by this, so let me break them down one by one.
Two models keep Emily intact and bring it North of Cancun by 100 miles or so....It would still be a pretty powerful storm, but the effects of a hurricane passing North of Cancun would be MUCH less than the effects of one passing just to the South. This would mean a period of heavy rain and somewhat gusty winds for 6-12 hours, but damage would be rather confined, and recovery would be quite speedy!
One model takes Emily significantly further South of Cancun. This model has been hinting at this for days, and has performed very well so far this Hurricane Season, especially with Dennis. This solution takes the storm so far south that the effects would be minimal.
Two other models don't even let Emily develop much further, and essentially wipe the storm out. I'm not necessarily sold on this, since Emily does have a lot of warm water to travel over, but the fact that a few models suggest this is encouraging nonetheless. The effects from these solutions would be perhaps some clouds and scattered showers, but little more.
So that just goes to show how quickly things can change when dealing with hurricanes. Now, just as people were in a panic about the previous posts so quickly, I do NOT want to sound the all clear just yet. I would really like to see a few more sets of data before I would rest completely easy, but still, this is VERY good news!
Please stay tuned to future updates here, and if I cannot be reached immediately here, I would direct you to the National Hurricane Center's Website at www.nhc.noaa.gov