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Hurricane Emily -- Update!!!!

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Illinois
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Hurricane Emily -- Update!!!!

Howdy folks, 2:00AM Central Time, and Weatherdood's chiming in with some GREAT news! Just got done examining some of the latest computer model data, and the news is most encouraging.

From surveying 5 different computer models, NONE of the 5 suggest a direct hit from Emily! There are three plausible scenarios suggested by this, so let me break them down one by one.

Two models keep Emily intact and bring it North of Cancun by 100 miles or so....It would still be a pretty powerful storm, but the effects of a hurricane passing North of Cancun would be MUCH less than the effects of one passing just to the South. This would mean a period of heavy rain and somewhat gusty winds for 6-12 hours, but damage would be rather confined, and recovery would be quite speedy!

One model takes Emily significantly further South of Cancun. This model has been hinting at this for days, and has performed very well so far this Hurricane Season, especially with Dennis. This solution takes the storm so far south that the effects would be minimal.

Two other models don't even let Emily develop much further, and essentially wipe the storm out. I'm not necessarily sold on this, since Emily does have a lot of warm water to travel over, but the fact that a few models suggest this is encouraging nonetheless. The effects from these solutions would be perhaps some clouds and scattered showers, but little more.

So that just goes to show how quickly things can change when dealing with hurricanes. Now, just as people were in a panic about the previous posts so quickly, I do NOT want to sound the all clear just yet. I would really like to see a few more sets of data before I would rest completely easy, but still, this is VERY good news!

Please stay tuned to future updates here, and if I cannot be reached immediately here, I would direct you to the National Hurricane Center's Website at www.nhc.noaa.gov

Dood

Florida
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241. Re: Hurricane Emily -- Update!!!!

Well I just got back from my plan B. (always have a plan b) totally wonderful. I was scheduled to be in Mayan Riviera from the 19th thru 23rd.

Awesome vacation in Turks and Caicos. July 18 thru the 24th!

I hope everyone who was scheduled to go to Yucatan in the last days as Emily approached cancelled or found a plan B.

It was the wise thing to do unless you like seriously adventure travel with a ruck sack, saltines and a bottle of warm water. Or perhaps throwing away hundreds of dollars to a poor excuse of a holiday.

Weatherdood not withstanding, I've come to decide for myself about catastrophic weather events by doing my own research. After 10 years in the TV news biz in FL, I've become somewhat cynical of TV news personalities. Even in the small markets, like market 186 where I started in Elmira, the anchors do the weather or market 86 in Ft. Myers back in '89. I have come to see the reality of TV newscasters. They are just like you and I, only with designer suits, large egos, and a nice voice to read the teleprompter.

It’s a nice gig. As long as everyone loves you. The Q scores are up and the consultants are favorable. As you get older, wrinkles appear; soon the wisdom fades to the force of the youthful face and ratings. Then, in retirement, your neighbors look with raised brows as you assure them about the next passing storm. Weather forecasting seems like such an inexact science in the present. Turbidity and chaos theory are in their infancy.

Dave in hurricane alley

Calhoun, Georgia
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242. Re: Hurricane Emily -- Update!!!!

Well said. I have gone back and read all your posts pre-Emily. I was always somewhere nearby making similar comments, but not as eloquently. I, for one, appreciate your efforts at warning of the potential danger of heading to Cancun when it was obvious a hurricane would be landing somewhere in the Yucatan. Unfortunately the media showed people in the hotel shelters partying as the hurricane hit. (They didn’t show the ones stacked like firewood in schools and gymnasiums.) This along with the fact that Cancun didn’t receive much damage, makes me worry that the next time a hurricane comes even less people will take heed.

Boston
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243. Re: Hurricane Emily -- Update!!!!

with your knowledge of the weather and its patterns.. could you give me some direction as to what islands are not affected during the hurricane months? i know that Aruba is fairly safe and has only been hit once or twice.. what other islands may be safe as well?

thanks for your assistance.