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Invest 98L is headed near St. John

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Plaistow, New...
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Invest 98L is headed near St. John

We will be arriving Saturday October 13th, the afternoon before what will probably be named as Tropical Storm Patty makes its closest approach to St. John. This morning, the ensemble track passed right through Tortola, but as of 8 PM Wednesday the averaged track has shifted ~150 miles eastward. Still, given its size, we are likely in for a blow, and an overflowing cistern. Others traveling soon (TnCGator?) might want to be aware of this.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Kevin

Edited: 9:39 pm, October 10, 2012
Plaistow, New...
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1. Re: Invest 98L is headed near St. John

Second try on the link: wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201298_…

Edit: That time it worked.

Kevin

Edited: 11:02 pm, October 10, 2012
Chicago
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for Seven Mile Beach, East End
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2. Re: Invest 98L is headed near St. John

Hopefully just a strong breeze and some rain. Keeping fingers crossed.

B.

St Thomas
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3. Re: Invest 98L is headed near St. John

Rain is predicted over the weekend but these waves quickly move on. Nobody I've spoken to here is concerned in the least and our plants and cisterns will enjoy it!

Pia
St John, VI
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4. Re: Invest 98L is headed near St. John

Rain please God give us rain (sorry everyone) :)

They just opened Hurricane Hole on St John - the 8am forecast does look interesting totally different than the 8pm last night - eagerly waiting on the 2pm

Pia

Milford, NH
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5. Re: Invest 98L is headed near St. John

Ok - being of little meteorologist knowledge (OK, let's say none), what is an invest and how does it compare to a Tropical Depression or storm?

St Thomas
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6. Re: Invest 98L is headed near St. John

An "invest" is a weather pattern to watch as it may develop into something stronger.

This is a good site to watch for our particular area:

http://www.weathercarib.com/

Milford, NH
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7. Re: Invest 98L is headed near St. John

Thanks STT - that helps - we are coming down for Sat afternoon so fingers crossed!!! I'm less concerned about what it does once we get there, I just want to be able to get there.

Plaistow, New...
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8. Re: Invest 98L is headed near St. John

The storm tracks of the various atmospheric models were just updated (Thursday night, 8 PM), and the tracks now vary from directly over St. John to 200 miles east. 98L also seems to be picking up speed, with closest approach now looking like Saturday night. While the system's development and organization have also increased, wind speeds are still likely to be below or at most at tropical storm levels by the time it passes St. John. The rain will be welcome, if not excessive.

Kevin

Chicago, Illinois
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9. Re: Invest 98L is headed near St. John

Any updates on Patty or Invest 98L? we are flying into STT tomorrow. What are they predicting for tomorrow afternoon? Wondering if we should take the ferry to St John from Red Hook vs Crown Bay Marina on the Westin Shuttle ferry. any one local got an update?

Plaistow, New...
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10. Re: Invest 98L is headed near St. John

Invest 98L was just upgraded to Tropical storm Rafael (Patty was just used by a short-lived storm near the Bahamas), and the center of its wide cone of probability lies 50 miles east of the VI, with the closest approach coming mid afternoon on Saturday, naturally when our flight from Boston is supposed to be landing. Wind speeds at that time should be around 40 knots; a hurricane it is not, but our flight is likely to either be cancelled or re-routed to San Juan. The St. Thomas to St. John ferry is also likely to shut down. For anyone traveling tomorrow, this storm is likely to disrupt things. Make sure that you check flight status before you head to the airport, and rain gear is in order.

Kevin

Edited: 8:18 pm, October 12, 2012